Missile Defence

The Campaign

yorks_cnd_100Yorkshire on the U.S. military front line

Yorkshire has been placed in the front line of any nuclear confrontation involving the United States because of the two military bases at Fylingdales and Menwith Hill that support the US Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system.

The United States has been developing an extremely expensive global weapons system over several decades now (see figure above) generally termed ‘Missile Defense’.  This system (consisting of missile bases and radar stations across the world and including sea-based components) is a constituent part of a first strike capability that provides the US with the ability to attack (or threaten to attack) other countries and effectively neutralise any military retaliation. So in fact, Missile Defence system is offensive and helps the US achieve a strategy of global military dominance – or, as termed by the US military  ‘full spectrum dominance’ – that gives them control of land, sea, air, space and information.

How it is supposed to work

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How the basic missile defense system is supposed to work. The enemy missile here is shown to be launched from North Korea (who do not possess a long range nuclear armed missile) but the system could theoretically be used against any long range missiles – from Russia or China perhaps?

Basically the system is composed of space and land based components that detect, track and target missiles targetted on the United States. When sufficient data about the missiles has been collected an interceptor would be fired to smash into and destroy the missile before it reaches its intended target (see diagram above or view the video below).


Part 1 – What is missile defense?

This offensive system threatens to start a new arms race, because other states – including Russia and China – feel threatened by US Missile Defence. This is leading them to increase their stockpiles of weapons and/or develop technologies that could outwit or overwhelm missile defence systems as well as encouraging them to develop their own missile defence system (leading to a nuclear weapons spiral).

US Missile Defence stands in the way of nuclear arms reduction talks. While the US continues to push on with the system and place bases on the borders of Russia and China, they feel threatened and are likely to be unwilling to reduce their nuclear war heads. In fact in December 2013, it was reported that Russia had deployed Iskander missiles with a range of hundreds of kilometers in its Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania. Russia had said in 2011 that it might do this as part of a response to an anti-missile shield the United States and NATO are building in Europe.

US Missile Defense – a Global System

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The global extent of the US Missile Defense System (see also the video below)

The US uses bases and facilities around the world and in space to support its missile defense system. They are integrated through a command and control centre situated in US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) in Nebraska,  (see the article on STRATCOM the next generation in war-fighting by Nebrakans for Peace). Below we illustrate briefly how the various components of the system (including those based in Yorkshire) are being connected and how they are also being linked with NATO systems.The principle threat identified by the US is that of short and medium-range missiles launched from Iran. Thus the components of global system would need to include: Patriot missile batteries for battlefield defence against short and medium-range ballistic missiles in the lower atmosphere; sea-based Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors aboard Aegis ships for medium and intermediate-range missiles in space; Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) interceptors to be developed and deployed to provide protection against short, medium and intermediate-range missiles in the upper atmosphere. Together these different interceptor types comprise a ‘layered defensive shield’ (see diagram below) with different segments of the system focussing on different sections of the flight of a ballistic missile (the boost or ascent phase; the midcourse phase and the terminal phase).

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The US Ballistic Missile Defense System and its Components

Current US BMD Ground, Sea and Space Based Components

abm_missile26 silo-based interceptors at Ft Greely, Alaska (with another 14 due to be added in 2017). 4 more interceptors are positioned at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California and a third site on the East Coast of the USA is liekly to be established by 2018.
beale_afbUpgraded ground based Ballistic Missile Early Warning Systems (BMEWS) – powerful phased array radars used for detecting, tracking and targetting missiles. Similar systems are established in Alaska, at Thule in Greenland and Fylingdales in Yorkshire. Other similar radars are stationed at Beale Air Force base in California and at Cape Cod in Massachusetts to give full coverage of the US from the east and west coasts.
xbandForward based transportable high powered X-band radar systems used to act as a forward based sensor for the system, detecting ballistic missiles early in their flight and providing precise tracking information. Currently deployed in Turkey and Israel, and additional systems are due to be installed in Japan and Qatar.
xband_seaA $1 billion sea-based X-band radar to track, discriminate and assess targets from a mobile semi-submersible platform based in the Aleutian Islands but moveable around the Pacific region.
aegisThe Aegis sea-based Ballistic Missile Defense System. A RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 anti-ballistic missile is launched from USS Shiloh, a US Navy Ticonderoga-class cruiser. Simialr ships equipped with missile defense systems can be stationed anywhere at sea. Spain is hosting 4 Aegis capable ships at Rota in the Mediterranean.
stssAs well as a system of early warning satellites, a Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) is under development for space-based detection and tracking of ballistic missiles. Data from STSS satellites would be transmitted to the US via ground based down-link stations and the UK has already agreed that Menwith Hill in Yorkshire will be one of those. The data will allow interceptors to engage incoming missiles earlier in flight than would be possible with other missile detection systems.

More about the US BMD Components in Yorkshire

The US has two key bases in Yorkshire that (among other things) are key to supporting their missile defense system. They are RAF Fylingdales on the North Yorkshire Moors, not far from Whitby and ‘RAF’ Menwith Hill, a few miles outside Harrogate in North Yorkshire.

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RAF Fylingdales missile warning and tracking on the North Yorkshire Moors: integral part of US Ballistic Missile Defense

 

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US Spy Base ‘RAF’ Menwith Hill near Harrogate, North Yorkshire: Soon to be a down link station for satellite components of US missile defense.

Fylingdales is already an operational radar component of US Missile Defense and the US has been given permission to use Menwith Hill as a downlink station for space based satellite components when (or if) they are finally made operational. As already mentioned, the whole system is integrated and controlled by Strategic Command (STRATCOM) in Nebraska, USA.

A Brief History of the Modern Day System

reagan_timeMissile defence systems have been developed since the 1950s but we will only consider here the development of the modern day US program which includes the Yorkshire based components. The idea to build a global ‘defense’ network to protect against possible enemy ballistic missile attacks was  publically announced on March 23, 1983 in the famous ‘Star Wars’ speech of President Ronald Reagan.  He proposed the development of a system that would make nuclear weapons ‘impotent and obsolete.’ He had been persuaded that it was possible to build a shield that would protect the United States from missile attack from anywhere in the world. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was implemented from this idea and involved the development of various kinds of speculative and extremely expensive technology such as ground and space-based interceptor missiles, energy beam and laser weapons. The command and control of these components would be coordinated through a global satellite system.

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The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) was established in 1984

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The SDIO became the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization in 1993

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The BMDO became the Missile Defense Agency in 2002

This grand plan was soon seen to be technically unfeasible and, with the end of the Cold War, unnecessary. Even so, successive US administrations have continued to finance research and development in some aspects of SDI at a rate of around $7-8 billion annually. In 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the US would unilaterally withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with Russia in order to develop, test and deploy missile defence technology. The ABM Treaty prevented the deployment of missile defence systems in an attempt to ensure that the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) would maintain a precarious strategic balance of nuclear weapons numbers and capabilities. However, the Bush administration’s plan was for a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system consisting of ground-based and satellite systems intended to detect, track, identify, target and intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) aimed at the continental US.

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US Ground Based Missile Defense System

The GMD system is composed of five upgraded early warning and tracking radar bases: one at Fylingdales, one at Thule in Greenland, and three on US soil in Alaska, California and Massachusetts (see diagram above). Interceptor missiles intended to knock out incoming ICBMs are stationed in Alaska and California. Further plans have included establishing specialist facilities at existing bases in places such as Australia and the UK (at Menwith Hill in North Yorkshire) to receive and relay tracking and targeting information from space-based infrared tracking satellites and the stationing of a number of interceptor missiles in Poland and a new powerful radar base in the Czech Republic. These moves increased tension with Russia and in 2007 President Vladimir Putin both threatened to withdraw Russia from the INF Treaty – a major cold war arms treaty restricting the stationing of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe – and suspend Russia from the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. Russia also became very concerned about the positioning of US interceptor missiles in Poland.

There was also significant opposition in Poland and the Czech Republic to US bases being established there and this shifted the focus on missile defence to Europe. Plans for GMD looked quite vulnerable at the end of George W. Bush’s second term of office as President.

US Missile Defense in Europe

Before being elected President in 2008 Barack Obama stated that he would ‘cut investments in unproven missile defense systems’ but also that he was not ‘opposed’ to missile defense altogether. The first statement was welcomed by many but the second was more or less forgotten. In fact, on becoming President, Obama was true to his word on both counts. He did draw back from his predecessor’s plans and cancelled the projects proposed for Poland and the Czech Republic. Instead, on September 17, 2009, President Obama announced that the US would pursue a “Phased Adaptive Approach” to missile defense in Europe. The new approach centered on the ship based Aegis missile defense system would be deployed in three main phases from 2011 to 2018:

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President Obama’s Phased Adaptive Approach

  • Phase 1 – 2011: Aegis BMD-capable multi-role ship deployed to the Mediterranean, Spain will host four US Aegis-capable ships at Rota; AN/TPY-2 forward X-band radar in Turkey; Patriot missiles in Poland;
  • Phase 2 – 2015: Aegis interceptor missiles adapted to be launched from land (Aegis Ashore)  – the Standard Missile (SM) 3 IB battery to be hosted by Romania;
  • Phase 3 – 2018: SM-3 IIA (under development with Japan) to be deployed in Poland and at sea.  Additional sensors and tracking capabilities to be on-line by 2018.

A fourth phase to have been fielded after 2022 was cancelled in March 2013. This system was adopted by NATO at its 2010 Summit meeting in Lisbon.

In April 2010 Russia and the US signed up to the New START Treaty (to come into force in early 2011) but the new treaty stirred up some controversy in the US. Republicans insisted that the President had given in to Russia on the deployment of missile defense in Europe. This was strongly denied by Obama’s negotiators and the US Missile Defense Agency. In fact new plans for US Missile Defense were to join up with NATO and modify and expand ship and land-based systems for installation in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The full details were presented in 2010 in a Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report which showed that the Obama Administration was shifting from ‘defending the homeland’ against long-range ICBMs to ‘defending against regional threats’.

Various types of missile defense system are now being developed to counter different missile type – i.e. short range, medium range, intermediate range and long range or intercontinental ballistic missiles (see figure below).

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US Missile Defense Systems are being developed to counter various missile attack ‘threats’

The following video made by Strategic Forecasting Inc. (or Stratfor, a company specialising in global intelligence) may help to illustrate some of the points mentioned above:

NATO and Missile Defence

NATO work on missile defence started in the early 1990s, initially focussing on a Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) system to counter short or medium range missiles for deployed NATO troops. This was expanded in 2002 to consider the protection of population centres and the NATO 2004 Summit in Istanbul agreed that work on TMD should be continued expeditiously. The following year, 2005, saw NATO countries approve a Charter for Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD), again to protect NATO forces. The NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008 agreed to integrate components of President Obama’s Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) to missile defence into the developing NATO systems so as to extend coverage and in 2010 at the NATO Summit in Lisbon, it was decided to expand that the combined NATO and US system would be used to provide a missile defence system for the whole of Europe.

The Obama PAA is based on the ship based Aegis system and has 3 phases, each of which corresponds to a development of the Standard Missile 3 (SM3) interceptor – making it faster and longer range at each stage. Phase 1 is operating currently and incorporates SM-3 IA missiles carried on Aegis cruisers. Phase 2 calls for an improved interceptor (the SM-3 IB due to be tested in 2014) and an Aegis Ashore (i.e. a land based missile battery) in Romania to be deployed by 2015.  In Phase 3, the SM-3 IIA longer range interceptor that presently is under development in cooperation with Japan is scheduled for use at a site in Poland and at sea.  Additional sensors and tracking capabilities are also planned for 2018.  Finally, by 2020, Phase 4 calls for deployment of the SM-3 IIB interceptor to provide an early intercept capability against Medium and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles and provide an additional layer for an enhanced defence of the US homeland against ICBMs.

In 2011 agreements were made with Turkey and Romania to host a forward based X-band radar system and interceptors respectively for the US-NATO system. Also in 2011 the US confirmed the agreement to base 24 interceptors in Poland by 2018 and Spain agreed to host Aegis missile defense ships in Rota. In addition, the Netherlands decided to adapt 4 air-defence frigates for NATO’s BMD capability. In 2012 NATO established its command and control centre at Ramstein, Germany and the Chicago Summit included, perhaps rather prematurely, a declaration of the Interim Capability of the system. This NATO propaganda video gives and overview of the system:

Russia has repeatedly asked for legally binding assurances that NATO missile interceptors would not be used against Moscow’s strategic missiles but Washington is unwilling to do this. In response, the US has invited Russia to participate in the defensive system, helping NATO guard against Iran. But Russia is unlikely to cooperate on a flawed system against a threat it doesn’t see as imminent. In any case such cooperation between NATO and Russia could alienate China who may then build up its nuclear arms, creating a domino effect — with India and Pakistan responding in a similar way. Although initial discussions towards participation were held, little progress has been made and Russia has accused the US of not taking the idea of joint participation seriously.

But how much does it cost?

Between 1985 and 2012, US Congress appropriated $149.5 billion for Missile Defense Agency programmes – which does not include some programmes such as Patriot system. In 2013 the Pentagon requested $9.7 billion for missile defense – $7.8 billion for the Missile Defense Agency and $1.9 billion for the Army and others. This brought estimates for the cost of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense program alone to be about $40.926 billion from inception up until 2017.

There are also high level costs for cancelled programmes, including the Kinetic Energy interceptor (2009) (cancelled after spending $4.5 billion over 8 years) and the Air Borne Laser (cancelled after spending $5.2 billion).

These are huge sums of money – it is quite easy to think of alternative uses for that money in the US and around the world, but even after all that has been spent there remains the question “will it/can it actually work?”

So, does/can it work?

During the first session of the 25th NATO Summit in Chicago in 2012, the alliance’s senior governing body declared the missile defense system it endorsed in 2010 in Lisbon to be operational. However, although this may mean that the various components of the system can function together, it does not mean it will actually work.

A 2012 report by the US National Research Council stated significantly that  “the current GMD system has serious shortcomings ans provides at best a limited initial defense against a relatively primitive threat.” As of July 2013, 8 of the 17  hit-to-kill intercept tests have been successful (47%) and the system has yet to be tested against a target with ICBM range and speed and the latest version of the interceptor in use (currently being 10 of the 30 deployments) has never successfully intercepted a test target. According to MDA Director current interceptors are more like prototypes than field versions, but even if we assume that the current systems could be made to work as planned – what kind of protection would they be?

Another 2012 report, this time by the US Defense Science Board discussing the Obama PAA concluded that early intercept is “not realistically achievable”. It pointed out the inadequacy of the existing Aegis radars and highlighted the problems of discriminating between warheads and other objects.

One major problem is that the limited number of anti-ballistic missiles could be overwhelmed by sheer numbers if an all out attack was launched on the US (or Europe), there would be little protection from the hundreds of missiles that could be launched. Another difficulty yet to oversome is that of countermeasures. Any state that can build and launch an ICBM could presumably install some way of fooling or avoiding an anti-ballistic missile – as described in the following video:

In addition to this it is known that manoeuvrable and hypersonic (travelling at many times the speed of sound) missile systems are being developed by Russia and China – these would be extremely difficult to track and target accurately by any missile defense system.

Conclusion

There seems little doubt that missile defense systems encourage arms races. Whenever a shield is developed a stronger sword follows, which leads to more shield developments and so on –  in a spiral that can only eventually lead to disaster.  It is clear that what is actually needed is a change in the way we look at security and how we define and deal with threats. There are many other approaches the US and other governments might consider as alternatives to developing missile defence systems that only encourage more missiles to be built – we need to work collaboratively to eradicate the need for them in the first place. If we are concerned about nuclear weapons proliferation we can vigorously pursue a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty, develop new international monitoring systems, and abide by and strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. If we are worried about ballistic missiles we can negotiate a new Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty or a missile test ban, and work for missile-free zones. We could make a real attempt to rid the world once and for all from the threat of nuclear annihilation by seriously pursuing a Nuclear Weapons Convention.

This would seem to be a more sensible and sustainable way of behaving, one that would avoid fuelling the suspicion and distrust caused by the current strategies, and that would have benefits for all.

A growing number of peace and human rights groups are joining the campaign to protest at missile defence and the militarization of space. The Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space is a leading international network of peace groups concerned about these issues. It has around 150 affiliates world wide and, among other things, coordinates the annual “Keep Space for Peace Week” in which groups organise events focussing on preventing the spread of space militarization and an arms race in space. We hope you will join us in supporting these activities.

Take Action!

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Keeping Space for Peace at Fylingdales

The roles of Fylingdales and Menwith Hill are marked every year during “Keep Space for Peace Week” during October. Yorkshire CND usually organises a demonstration of some kind at Fylingdales and the Campaign for Accountability of American Bases will host a protest at the main gates of Menwith Hill.

There are also protests and events organised at other times – keep a look out for future actions at the two Yorkshire bases and elsewhere.

Latest news

Latest military news from “SpaceWar” – spacewar.com/missiledefense.html

Latest technical news from mostlymissiledefense.com

More news from the global network website: space4peace.org/bmd.htm

Resources

q_a_mdA Questions and Answers on missile defence pamphlet from CND – Missile Defence Q&A
md_briefingA comprehensive CND briefing which gives an introduction to the issue of US missile defence and indicates the UK involvement – CND Missile_Defence Briefing

Although the U.S.-Russian recent attempts to agree to a joint missile defense system have failed, the imperatives for such collaboration are increasing. Over the coming decade, the two countries should take steps to integrate missile defense systems into the regimes of nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, and mutual security.

April 8, 2013 Carnegie Moscow Center – Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation

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Yorkshire CND Missile Defense roller banners – for exhibitions demonstrations etc. can be borrowed from Yorkshire CND.
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Upcoming events

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Links

gnGlobal Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space

caab Campaign for the Accountability of American Bases, focussing on Menwith Hill

Mostly missile defense

 Mostly Missile Defense (and some space surveillance), mostly from a technical perspective. Mostlymissiledefense covers ballistic missile defense and outer space security issues, primarily from a technical perspective.  It is maintained by George Lewis, currently  a Visiting Scholar at the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University.